In the early years of this century, much thought was given to the future of the European social model. At the time, it was already clear that Europe had several varieties of social models. There is the liberal Anglo-Saxon model, which grants state benefits only to those with a verifiable need, but otherwise leaves individuals to obtain social security on the market for themselves. There is the conservative continental European model, which ensures coverage for the entire population through a state-regulated, contribution-based social insurance system. And there is the social democratic Scandinavian model, which emphasizes tax-financed social citizenship. The aim has always been to reconcile the equality-based principle of democracy with a capitalist system and its inherent inequalities. In the words of Wolfgang Streeck: Once the systemic competition between capitalism and socialism had been overcome, the concern was how to make democratic capitalism work.
Today, we know that the European social model – of whatever variety – was conceived in the absence of war, climate change, migration, financial market crises, and labor shortages. In Denmark, the welfare state is battening down the hatches as it is becoming overburdened by immigrants with a high demand for benefits; Tony Blair’s Britain fell for the misconception that future capitalism would generate value in a deindustrialized service society driven by a nice fat finance industry in the City of London; and Germany is coming to the realization that Russia’s war in Ukraine has wrecked its strategy of a major socioecological transformation, which had relied on gas as a transitional technology on its path to climate neutrality. And all European service-based societies have run out of service providers.
Europe is now just a community of values without a foundation. We argue over the erosion of the rule of law in Hungary. We fear the emergence of a narco-state in the Netherlands. We dare not even think about what may happen to France after Macron. And there is still no European army to speak of.
Given all this, Europe’s future really does not reside in its values, but in its problems. Hungary’s decline sheds light on the post-Soviet legacy in Europe. The mostly urban, pro-EU sections of Hungarian society are facing a disgruntled majority that still mourns the comfortable social cushions of the Soviet era. Both groups are united in their distrust of Western values acting as accessories to murderous capitalism.
The result is a toxic mixture of cynicism, resentment, and indifference to which generous European social policy is not an effective antidote. Frans Timmermans, who campaigned and fought for a Green Deal in the EU like no other, led a Green/left-wing alliance that won 25 out of 150 seats in the last parliamentary elections in the Netherlands. They came in as the second strongest force, second only to resurfaced right-wing populist Geert Wilders and his one-man show PVV (Party for Freedom), which claimed 37 seats. And in the European wonderland of Portugal, an independent but sloppy judiciary has forced the resignation of the head of government. Europe can neither be saved by Brussels nor by an active civil society. The citizens of Europe must wake up and realize what is at stake for the former First World, which in 30 years’ time will account for a mere eight percent of the global population in a multipolar world.
The transformation will not succeed if we rely on experts to show us the way
The first problem is demographic in nature. Across the board, European economies lack people who think and act proactively. Intelligent coexistence cannot develop against, but only hand in hand with the economic forces in our societies. There is enough to do. Just think of the smartphone economies in Africa or vertical farming in China.
A climate-friendly conversion of our production and consumption model will not be a “great transformation” if we merely follow the lead of experts. It will have to be a joint and fair effort by all of us. We must change our habits and bear the costs for green steel, tasty tomatoes, and a functioning international transport system in Europe. Then Europe would change from a continent of “great transformation” to one of “solidarity-based adaptation.”
In addition, as we discuss our shared problems, Europe will discover the inestimable value of the individual. In European thinking, the individual is not a fixed entity, but a link in a system of moving targets. Individuals muddle through, latch on, and suddenly discover an empty space. Individuals engage in democratic politics, make scientific discoveries, and try their hands as “entrepreneurial entrepreneurs,” as Schumpeter defined them. They do this not posing as victors, but knowing that they as individuals are a riddle to themselves and to others, and that is what makes them a source of new ideas and other forces.
Today, more than ever, Europe is a community of states and not a federal state. Each country upholds its own ideas, institutions, and interests. And these ideas often diverge widely. However, Europeans are also beginning to understand that there is a geopolitical conflict of hegemony between the US and the Chinese “way of life and power.” The US seems to have become a country of detached and aloof individuals who would rather go bowling alone than have fun together. In China, on the other hand, people engage in a state-organized game where those who best serve the common good win privileges in a digitally perfected “social scoring” system. The US is in danger of collapsing under its own pathos of freedom, while China’s only response to its people’s longing for personal freedom is more coercion. The US defends its position of power with the world’s most readily deployable army; China, on the other hand, is building an international Silk Road with lots of credit and little ideology. Both states failed in the pandemic: the US because it was unable to enforce an effective lockdown, and China because it was unable to legitimately come out of its lockdown.
Europe has nothing to offer in response to all this it if cannot define itself as a union of differences. Europe grappled with the pandemic in both unity and freedom, juxtaposing Sweden’s strategy of mild “natural selection” with Italy’s strategy of “strict containment.” The aspect of unity arises from the need for European solidarity. Solidarity is based on reciprocity, generosity, and the counterfactual idea that the time of Europe as an accomplished entity is waning, but the time of a “developing” Europe is dawning.
Heinz Bude was Professor of Macrosociology at the University of Kassel from 2000 to 2023. He has served as founding director of the documenta Institute since October 2020. His latest work, Abschied von den Boomern (“Farewell to the Boomers”), was published by Carl Hanser Verlag.