2004 was a year of new beginnings – what hopes for the future do we have today?

May 1, 2004, was a day of celebration in many Central and Eastern European capitals. With the largest round of enlargement in its history, the EU ended the division of Europe. There was great euphoria and joy at finally joining the European family, which grew from 15 to 25 members.

How do people in the region look back on the past two decades? What can we learn from this experience for future accessions? And what are the hopes that make people in our neighborhood want to join the EU today?


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POLAND

«The eastern perspective is urgently needed»

Poland must commit to EU reform. The Weimar Triangle, a Franco-German-Polish cooperation format that has been dormant for several years, could become a vehicle for change.

Text: Marek Prawda

Marek Prawda

Poland has become a model of effectiveness of the «European convergence machine.» No other place in the world, except part of Asia, has ever created such a coherent area of economic development as the European Union. EU integration made Poland one of the fastest developing countries in the world compared with its development level upon accession. This was fueled by three key processes: integration into the internal market and legal protections, the cushioning of social costs of the transformation, and integration into international supply chains. It was equally important to embed the state into Western structures of liberal democracy. EU membership also helped Poland overcome its ill-fated geopolitical situation and thus its security vacuum.

Current accession candidates should use the pre-accession phase as effectively as possible. During this phase, candidate countries can begin to leverage procedures and resources that will help them enormously further down the road. In their own best interest, candidate countries should make every possible effort to adapt to EU law. We consider the period from 1990 up to our official EU accession in 2004 as a process of real rapprochement with the EU. It took Japan the same amount of time (30 years, from 1950 to 1980) as Poland to grow its per capita GDP from 33 percent of Germany’s GDP to 60 percent, for example. Poland attained this growth in the period from 1990 to 2018, in the phases both prior to and following EU accession.

Growing importance of security in the EU too

In the context of future enlargements, it will be more important to reduce «gray areas» in European security, especially since we are now living in an EU that considers itself more a community of destiny rather than a bureaucratic machine spewing rules and regulations. In a world of newly arising threats, the aspect of security is gaining importance – in the EU too. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is right when she says that EU enlargement will cost us less dearly than a failure to enlarge. Under the impression of Ukraine’s war experience, Eastern European voices are becoming an indispensable element of European identity. Their expertise is urgently needed to counter the threat of imperial Russia.

This creates new tasks for Poland within the EU. Poland should define its new «indispensability» in the context of the enlargement process. It must push for EU reform as a prerequisite for enlargement. Poland could also bring Germany closer to countries in northern and eastern Europe that consider security and enlargement as their priority. The Weimar Triangle, a Franco-German-Polish cooperation format that has been dormant for several years, should become a vehicle for these changes in the EU. Everything speaks in favor of a revival of the Weimar Triangle: Germany’s talk of a Zeitenwende (a turning point in history), Paris launching military initiatives, and a new prospect of future enlargement. Meanwhile, Poland, as a NATO frontline country, has announced a significant increase in its military spending.

Marek Prawda is Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland. From 2016 to 2021, he served as Head of the European Commission Representation in Poland, and from 2012 to 2016 as Poland’s Permanent Representative to the EU. He served as Polish ambassador to Sweden and Germany and held senior positions in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In the 1980s, he was a member of the Solidarność movement.


SLOVAKIA

«Toward active European citizenship»

The Slovakian public primarily perceives the material benefits of the EU. And «evil, bureaucratic Brussels» is a popular scapegoat in many a populist politician’s speech. We must overcome this separation between «us» and «them».

Text: Oľga Gyárfášová 

Oľga Gyárfášová 

In 1989, many of my generation who had grown up and studied on the «wrong side» of the Iron Curtain hopefully followed the iconic Round Table talks between the Polish opposition movement Solidarność and the Communist Party, the cutting of barbed wire fences on the Hungarian–Austrian border, and finally the fall of the Berlin Wall. Shortly thereafter, the regime in former Czechoslovakia fell just as rapidly. Václav Havel became President and the miracle of freedom began. The European integration process was an important milestone on Slovakia’s winding road to democracy. EU accession on May 1, 2004, remains the finest hour in the Slovak Republic’s recent history.

Slovakia is and has been a net recipient of European funds, which were used to build and renovate roads, railroads, schools, pre-schools and hospitals, renew public squares, and build science parks. Hundreds of projects have been implemented to promote regional development, research, health, and environmental protection. Overall, more public investment stems from the European Structural and Investment Funds than the national budget.

After Slovakia joined the Schengen area in 2007, most intra-European border controls were abolished. The citizens of Slovakia make intense use of their fundamental European freedoms – they travel, study, work, and start companies throughout the EU. The country’s membership of the eurozone since 2009 has also promoted trade and reduced transaction costs. All these are undeniable advantages.

For many, the EU is more of a «cash machine» than a community of shared values 

The people of Slovakia are aware of this. According to the Eurobarometer of fall 2023, 83 percent of respondents believe that our country benefits from EU membership (compared with the EU average of 72 percent). It is all the more surprising that in the same survey, only 44 percent have a positive perception of the EU, 38 percent are neutral, and 18 percent even hold a negative view.

Surveys repeatedly show that the public emphasizes the material benefits of membership rather than the values on which the EU is based – democracy, peace, human rights, the rule of law, and solidarity. For many, the EU is more of a «cash machine» than a community of shared values.

There is certainly no danger of Slovakia leaving the EU, but «evil, bureaucratic Brussels» is a popular scapegoat in many a populist politician’s speech. The public discourse fails to address values that have no price tag but are of priceless value. Solidarity is a concept we expect others to show toward us. In order to promote active European citizenship, we must overcome the division between «us» and «them»

In the future, the EU will likely be enlarged to include countries that will need our solidarity. Slovakia will transition from a net recipient to a net contributor. In the years ahead, it will therefore be essential for the Slovak public’s perception of EU membership to shift away from mere material benefits toward an appreciation of the EU as a community of values that unite us.

Oľga Gyárfášová is a sociologist and professor at the Institute for European Studies and International Relations at Comenius University in Bratislava. She is also a founding member of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO), an independent think tank. Her work focuses on public opinion, electoral research, European integration, and political culture.


HUNGARY

«20 years on: broken promises and unbroken hope»

Text: Márta Pardavi

Márta Pardavi

On May 1, 2004, I was one of thousands attending a festival to celebrate Hungary’s new opportunities for economic growth, social progress, and deeper integration into the European family. At the time, the EU was a place we Hungarians had been yearning for. The process of political and legislative harmonization with EU standards was based on our commitment to uphold the values of the Copenhagen criteria: democracy, the rule of law, and human rights.

Back then, we failed to fully understand that our newly founded democratic community lacked regular «health checks.» We did not appreciate the dangers of undervaluing the role of civil society. Today, we are facing our country’s failure to comply with the basic values laid down in Copenhagen.

Hungary’s 2004 commitment to democracy and human rights is barely recognizable today. Since 2010, Hungary has been in a constant state of high alert because its government disrespects independent institutions and the rule of law, tramples on fair competition and media freedom, runs incessant populist campaigns, and pursues xenophobic and homophobic policies.

A clear signal against attacks on journalists, judges, and activists

EU institutions, which have at times been slow to react, are now confronting the threat that Prime Minister Orbán poses to the very fabric of the EU by undermining the principle of democratic governance and the rights of citizens and businesses. The EU is trying to combat corruption and attacks on the rule of law by taking legal action and suspending EU funds. Such measures will not bring about democratic change in Hungary, but are nonetheless valuable tools to support the independence of the judiciary. They also send a clear signal to discourage direct attacks on journalists, judges, and human rights activists.

Even though the celebration of the 20th anniversary of EU accession has been rather marred by disappointment with my country’s policies, I still firmly believe in the transformative power of democracy, human rights, and the European project. Like many people in other European countries, most Hungarians stand by these values. More than 70 percent are still in favor of Hungary’s EU membership. Many EU citizens still believe in the original project of the EU: peace, prosperity, and the well-being of its citizens.

Today, the EU has a number of strategies and instruments in place to protect fundamental rights, the rule of law, and democracy. But we need many more. To make progress on this path, we must invest heavily in our project of democracy and fundamental rights before Hungary’s example becomes a disturbingly familiar phenomenon in other European countries. Strong EU values are our common interest and responsibility – in every current and future Member State. To nurture them, we must support independent institutions, a free civil society, and free media, and we must empower them to resist the siren songs of authoritarian leaders and their false promises everywhere.

Márta Pardavi is co-chair of the Hungarian Helsinki Committee, a leading human rights NGO in Budapest. A lawyer by trade, her work focuses on threats to the rule of law and encroachments on the space of civil society in Hungary and the EU, as well as on strengthening alliances between human rights defenders in the EU.


ROMA IN EUROPE

«Europe as a space and a home for all citizens» 

Roma must be included in all political decision-making processes everywhere, but particularly in countries affected by political crises.

Text: Gabriela Hrabaňová 

Gabriela Hrabaňová 

We are currently experiencing multiple crises – Covid-19, an energy crisis, war in Ukraine. Not only in times of crisis but particularly then, it is crucial to defend democratic values and protect the human rights of minorities. Short-term, patchwork solutions will not resolve the consequences of centuries of discrimination, as our minority has experienced.

One thing that remains certain is the need to ensure that civil society has the independence and financial resources to act as a watchdog and hold national and local governments accountable. With shrinking spaces for civil society, we lack positive obligations to ensure a safe environment for them. This would include access to civil dialogue mechanisms, in line with international human rights standards on freedom of association, expression, and assembly.

Regarding the participation of Roma in policy processes, the Fourth Status Report by the OSCE and the Roma Civil Monitoring reports ascertained insufficient consultation with Roma as well as very few participatory and inclusive mechanisms for civil society participation at the national level. Importantly, there has been no progress toward further empowerment of Roma.

It is clear that Roma must be consulted and included in all the policies concerning our future – not only Roma-related policies – across all states, including those countries where crises hit the hardest. For example, it is of utmost importance for the future of Ukraine to involve minorities, including Roma, in rebuilding the country.

Responding to antigypsyism and raising awareness in society and with authorities

The ERGO Network is a strong advocate in fighting antigypsyism. Through our members, we are closely following processes in the Member States to empower our participation. We are convinced that positive changes for the Roma are possible if antigypsyism is recognized and combated as the root cause of inequality and exclusion, and if the Roma are empowered to participate in social life as equal stakeholders. Member States must commit to effectively responding to antigypsyism in all its manifestations. They must allocate adequate resources to raising awareness in society and among authorities.

In view of the upcoming European elections, and in the context of increasing extremist parties, Europe bears great responsibility to enforce human rights, among other things, and to ensure that Europe remains a safe space and a home to all its residents. To do that, the electoral processes need to ensure inclusivity, for instance, by way of shortlisting candidates that are truly reflective of the diverse societies we live in.

Commitments have been made, but action is missing. Our fight against antigypsyism will only succeed if all aspects of inclusion are addressed.

Gabriela Hrabaňová is a human rights activist from the Czech Republic. She has many years of experience in protecting, promoting, and advocating Roma rights. She has been a member of the European Roma Grassroots Organisations (ERGO) Network since 2011 and currently serves as its director.


TURKEY

«Let’s not give up on the prospect of accession»

If a different constellation of actors and factors within the EU and Turkey interlocks and interacts, a virtuous dynamic may well be set in motion again. Both sides should definitely continue a dialogue on the political norms and standards of the EU, fostering a process of gradual rapprochement.

Text: Senem Aydın-Düzgit

Senem Aydın-Düzgit

Turkey has been an integral part of Europe’s centuries-long history and has enjoyed structured relations with the EU almost since its inception. In the past, both sides have aimed at cultivating a closer relationship, as is evident from the depth and breadth of their economic, societal, cultural, and political connections over the years.

Yet the future of the EU–Turkey relationship currently seems bleak. Turkey’s accession to the EU is not a realistic option for the short to medium term. Since the opening of accession talks in 2005, Turkey’s accession negotiations have proceeded at a snail’s pace, with 16 chapters opened and only one chapter provisionally closed. No new chapter has been opened since June 2016.

While Turkey’s move away from democracy toward a highly authoritarian, hierarchical, and centralized regime has consolidated a de facto deadlock of its accession negotiations, its waning accession prospects meant that the EU has had little leverage left over the trajectory of Turkish democracy. It also meant that Turkey–EU relations have now entered an era of increasingly transactional relations that are uncoupled from the at least partly values-based accession agenda. Turkey’s de-Europeanisation and de-democratization, coupled with a more unilateral and assertive foreign policy, have also fed a spiraling circle of antagonism and distancing between the two sides. Over the past two decades, Turkey’s status in relation to the EU has thus gradually transformed from a candidate country on the path to full accession to a neighbor, and finally to an adversary.

The vast majority of the Turkish public supports EU accession

At the time of writing this article in December 2023, this continues to be the prevalent dynamic. However, the history of the relationship suggests that it may change in future. As and when a different constellation of actors and factors within the EU and Turkey interlocks and interacts, a virtuous dynamic may well be set in motion again. Recent public opinion polls and studies in Turkey suggest that despite the downturn in relations, the vast majority of the Turkish public supports Turkey’s EU accession and holds favorable views of the EU. In the event that Turkey returns to democracy and normalcy, there is significant potential for deepened cooperation in various policy fields, extending beyond migration to the customs union and the economy, green transformation, security, and energy. This could take the form of a differentiated integration of Turkey into the EU, where accession prospects would not be abandoned, but complemented by gradually advancing convergence with the norms and standards of EU governance. This is why it is important that the accession perspective for Turkey, although currently frozen, should not be abandoned. In the context of the new enlargement architecture that is evolving in the wake of the Russia–Ukraine War, it might be the only instrument through which the EU can forge a meaningful and cooperative relationship with a future Turkey that is back on a path to democracy.

Senem Aydın-Düzgit is a Professor of International Relations at the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences of Sabanci University in Istanbul and Senior Scholar and Academic Affairs Coordinator at the Istanbul Policy Center. She is currently based in Berlin as a Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy.


WESTERN BALKANS

«Overcoming ‹enlargement fatigue› – toward a new beginning»

EU cooperation with civil society organizations and reliable, democratic forces could help stabilize the entire region.

Lejla Gačanica

Text: Lejla Gačanica

Back in 2003, when the European Council announced that the future of the Western Balkans lay within the European Union, the perspective seemed realistically challenging, but optimistic enough. 20 years later, there are many more challenges and less optimism. While the geopolitical arguments in favor of enlargement are stronger today, the process is likely to face more obstacles than it did back in 2003. Instability in Europe has increased, and the EU accession process has stagnated.

The brief history of EU enlargement for six Western Balkan countries was not a straight line, and the EU’s commitment to enlargement has suffered numerous setbacks. Unjustified delays, obstacles, and vetoes have undermined the credibility of the EU integration process and its capacity to drive progressive political transformation in the Western Balkans. Western Balkan countries, on the other hand, have been backsliding in democracy, the rule of law, media freedom, and fighting corruption. Reforms are lacking real progress and transparency. Tensions in the Western Balkans are growing, and the influence of Russia and China is increasing as they take advantage of political and security instability.

Still, EU accession has the potential to be the true driving force in the Western Balkans, including necessary reforms. A reminder of the transformative power of the enlargement policy is a much-needed incentive for exiting the circle of uncertainty in which the EU and the Western Balkans are stuck. Preconditions for an effective accession process are already in place. What we need now is for the EU to pursue a strategic approach toward the Western Balkans instead of ad hoc actions without long-term results. We need to strengthen transparency and accountability of EU officials who are involved in the negotiations. The EU must finally give up on «stabilitocracy», since it has proven to be the wrong strategy with Western Balkan political representatives.

The countries of the Western Balkans should commit to implementing the necessary reforms

Despite the curbed optimism at the moment, the EU is the right path for the Western Balkans, and vice versa. The importance of stability in the region and in Europe is beyond dispute, and for this reason alone, accession negotiations should never be abandoned. This will require several interventions in the current state of play, starting with a stronger and more determined EU that will lead an honest, credible, and value-based process of enlargement in the Western Balkans.

EU accession should be primarily based on meeting the accession criteria. The Western Balkan states should not rely on the EU softening its enlargement criteria due to the current geopolitical momentum, but rather commit to delivering on reforms, while the EU should keep holding the Western Balkans accountable for meeting the requirements.

The EU must effectively confront issues of bilateral disputes by some EU Member States toward candidate states. Issues that are not part of the accession criteria should be dealt with separately from the accession process itself.

The role of civil society is of utmost importance for enlargement. The EU should partner with civil society organizations and reliable democratic forces, often in opposition, which will actually contribute to a democratic political culture across the region.

Lejla Gačanica currently works as an independent researcher and political analyst. She has more than 15 years of experience working with international and civil society organizations in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Western Balkans region.

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